احتمال

$n$

$h$

$t$

$h+t=n$

$p$

$p$

ML

$p$

$p_{max}$

$P(x\vert p)$

$x$

$p_{max} = \frac{h}{h+t}$

$p_{max} = \frac{1}{3}.$

$p_{max} = 0.5$

$p_{max} = \frac{1}{3}$

توزیع بتا

$p_{max} = \frac{h+a-1}{h+t+a+b-2}$

$a$

$b$

$p_{max}$

$P(p\vert x) = \frac{P(x\vert p)*P(p)}{P(x)}$

نقشه

$a = 10, b = 10$

$p_{max} = \frac{10+10-1}{10+20+10+10-2} = \frac{19}{48} \approx 0.39$

$p_{max} = \frac{1}{3}$

$a$

$b$

$p_{max}$

$\frac{1}{3}$

$0.33$

$0.5$

$0.33$